Abstract
On 31st December 2019, a novel virus was reported from Wuhan City of Hubei Province of China, and later it was recognized as SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19). As the virus is highly human to human contagious, it has spread worldwide within a very short time. Since 24th March 2020, after the first reported case in North East India, the total confirmed cases reached up to 4,633 on 11th June 2020. In this work, an attempt has been made to delineate risk zones of COVID-19 in North East India using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and overlay analysis in Geographical Information System (GIS). The evaluation is based on 14 criteria that were classified into promoting and controlling factors. The promoting factors include population size, population density, urban population, elderly population, population below the national poverty line, and percentage of marginal workers. In contrast, the controlling factors include available doctors, other health workers, public health facilities, available beds, governance index (composite and health), and testing laboratories. The results were classified into very high, high, moderate, low, and very low risk zones. Most densely populated states with massive pressure on health facilities are likely to have a higher risk of COVID-19. Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland show a high COVID-19 risk, which constitutes almost 76.93% of the North East India population, covering 48.80% of surface area. The states under a moderate risk zone include 6.92% of the population over 8.52% of the area. Lastly, 16.15% of the people living over 42.69% of the total area belong to the states with a lower risk zone.
Highlights
The World Health Organization (WHO) country office has been informed about the pneumonia cases of unknown etiology detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China on 31st December 2019.1 Unexpectedly, it spread to different regions of China as well as other countries across the world, despite China’s considerable efforts to restrain the infection within Hubei.[2]
The epidemic was recognized as novel coronavirus of 2019 or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2 resulting in the disease COVID-19.3 On 31st January 2020, the WHO declared coronavirus as a public health emergency of international concern.[4]
The results show a high to very high risk of COVID-19 in the states with significantly less testing laboratory facilities coupled with inadequate public health facilities
Summary
The World Health Organization (WHO) country office has been informed about the pneumonia cases of unknown etiology detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China on 31st December 2019.1 Unexpectedly, it spread to different regions of China as well as other countries across the world, despite China’s considerable efforts to restrain the infection within Hubei.[2]. Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland show a high COVID-19 risk, which constitutes almost 76.93% of the North East India population, covering 48.80% of surface area.
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