AHP를 이용한 농업용저수지 수문학적 안전성평가 방법 개발 및 적용

Abstract

요 약현재국내일정규모이상댐들에대해서는「안전점검및정밀안전진단세부지침(댐)」기준에따라정밀안전진단을수행하고있다. 하지만여러평가기준중수문학적안전성평가는가능최대홍수량(ProbableMaximum Flood, PMF)에대한기존댐안전성을평가하는것으로대부분의농업용저수지에대해서는적용성이많이떨어진다. 따라서본연구에서는계수화모델과AHP 기법을통해다각적위험요인을고려한농업용저수지의수문학적안전성을재평가하고자한다. 이를위하여농업용저수지의다양한인자를반영하기위한수문학적안전성상·하위평가항목을선정하여계수화모델을개발하였다. 평가항목별지표점수의총합을산출한후전문가집단의응답에대한검증절차를실시하였고, 평가항목의가중치를산정하여최종적으로다각적위험요인을고려한농업용저수지의수문학적안전성평가를위한실용계수를산정하였다. 본연구결과기존평가기준은댐의가능최대홍수량에대한수문학적안전성을평가하는기준으로대부분의농업용저수지에대해서는홍수방어능부족에따른제체의월류로저수지의파괴위험성이큰것으로분류되었다. 그리고가능최대홍수량에대한여유고기준을만족하는저수지에대해서는댐의형식및상태별여유고에대한평가만으로필댐을평가하는것으로나타났다.핵심용어:수문학적안전성평가, 가능최대홍수량, 농업용저수지, 분석적계층화과정AbstractAccording to the「Safety Evaluation Detailed Instructions (Dam)」, precise safety inspection is carried out fordams that exceed a certain scale. However, as the Hydrological Safety Evaluation from various evaluationstandards is designed to evaluate the safety of existing dams considering PMF, the evaluation is much lessapplicable for most agricultural reservoirs. Therefore, the Hydrological Safety Guidelines for agriculturalreservoirs are expected to be re-evaluated considering the diverse risk factors with the coefficient model andAHP in this study. The coefficient model has been developed by selecting the hydrological safetysuperordinate․subordinate evaluation factors to reflect diverse risk factors of agricultural reservoirs. Aftercalculating the sum of indicators score for each evaluation factors, validation procedures were performed forthe questionnaire which a panel answered. The practical coefficient has eventually been estimated for thehydrological safety evaluation considering the diverse risk factors. The conclusions acquired based on thestudy done are that both most agricultural reservoirs were classified as flood defense capability is insufficientand agricultural reservoirs which meet embankment-freeboard standards considering PMF was overestimated.