AH1N1 impact on the Mexican pork meat market

Abstract

espanolSe estiman los efectos de la influenza AH1N1 en el consumo de carne de puerco a traves de un modelo de demanda de consumo AIDS (por sus siglas en ingles) para el consumo de carne en Mexico. Adicionalmente, los efectos indirectos a traves de la economia mexicana son calculados con un modelo de equilibrio general. Se concluye que el presunto riesgo de contraer la influenza AH1N1 mediante el consumo de carne de puerco provoco perdidas economicas de 94 millones de dolares. El rumor afecto a los sectores: porcino, de venta de granos y de manufactura de alimentos, bebidas y tabaco. Las familias pobres rurales fueron las mas afectadas. EnglishThis article presents estimates of AH1N1’s effects on the consumption of pork through an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for meat consumption in Mexico. Additionally, indirect effects through the Mexican economy are estimated using a general equilibrium model that captures the effects of intersectoral relationships and the induced effects by the circular flow of income. It is concluded that the presumed risk of contracting AH1N1 via pork consumption provoked total economic losses of $94 million. The rumor affected the pork sector, the grains sector and the manufacturing sector of food, beverages and tobacco. The poor rural households were the most affected.