Abstract
The reliable early estimates of production had always been the prime concerns of growers on one hand and planners as well as policy makers for import/export on the other hand. This study represents a linear regression model making use of meteorological parameters at critical stages of crop’s life cycle to predict the wheat yield about two months earlier than the harvesting. A statistical based software “Statistical Package for Social Sciences” (SPSS) and MS-excel were employed as working tools. Decadal (ten days) agrometeorological data for Rabi season (for the period 1993-2011) being observed at Regional Agromet Centre, Rawalpindi have been utilized. The parameters studied for correlation were mainly rainfall (amount and days), air temperature (minimum, maximum, mean), heat units (on phenological basis), relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, reference crop evapotran-spiration etc. Finally, minimum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall amount in January (tillering and stem extension phase) proved to be the reliable predictors for the final yield. The correlation coefficients for these parameters on individual basis resulted within the acceptable range where as in aggregate it remained 0.87, an optimistic value.
Highlights
In Pakistan, the total cultivable area is 34.54 million hectares (Mha) (39.3% of total land area), of which 23.38 Mha is under cultivation
Yield data recorded at National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) and Regional Agromet Centre (RAMC), Rawalpindi have been used in this study
In rainfed areas the crop is completely dependent on rain, since land preparation to the time of maturity
Summary
In Pakistan, the total cultivable area is 34.54 million hectares (Mha) (39.3% of total land area), of which 23.38 Mha is under cultivation. An area of approximately 4.22 Mha (4.8% of the total land area) is under forest cover. On average in Pakistan agriculture sector contributes about 25% to gross domestic product (GDP) and almost 44% of the country’s working force is being engaged directly or indirectly. The largest cropped area is under wheat cultivation, which is over 8.6 Mha [1]. Wheat is the major food crop and staple diet in Pakistan, grown under irrigated as well as rainfed conditions from October to April. The contribution of rainfed areas to national production is minimal (about 12%), yet it is the livelihood of local population. Several attempts made by different scientists from diverse disciplines to forecast wheat yield much earlier than its maturity achieving has achieved partial success but not as much is done from agrometeorological aspect
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
