Agroecological Assessment of Arable Lands in the Leningrad Region of Russia under the Influence of Climate Change

Abstract

The paper presents an analysis of the influence of climatic characteristics on the rating of land suitability for agricultural use. Soil fertility is one of the most important factors in land productivity and crop capacity; it is a complex value that depends not only on agrophysical and agrochemical soil properties but also on other natural factors, such as climate. There are different methodical approaches for a quantitative assessment of fertility level. The objectives of the research were to understand whether the distributions of active temperature sums and annual precipitation sums have a significant effect on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the rating assessment of land suitability for agricultural use in the example of the Leningrad region. The estimation and comparison between Semenov–Blagovidov’s method of quality land estimation and Karmanov’s method of appraisal of soils are given in this article. Karmanov’s method is highlighted in this paper for its ability to assess soil’s ecological indices more effectively than traditional methods. The research suggested that climate change may lead to increased variability in soil quality, with potential benefits for agriculture under certain climate scenarios, but at the same time, excessive temperatures in summer and precipitations might become a limiting factor, pushing down yields. The results of such assessment show that the performed calculation models can be used to forecast crop yields for future periods.