Abstract
The article is devoted to reviewing of main 8 models, which are used to analyze the agriculture sector, medium, and long-term forecasts, as well as policy making. The review is based on comparative analysis of models conducted by the authors according to a number of criteria. On its basis, formed the distinctive features of modeling, which are realized in these models. The first distinctive feature is the problem of choosing the level of aggregation in models. This feature generates the direction of research about the effectiveness of the application of one or another aggregation level in modeling. The second distinctive feature of modeling is structurization models into two types: partial equilibrium and computable general equilibrium models. The method of choosing the type of model is one of the actual problems. The third distinctive feature is dominance of deterministic approaches in the construction of models. The use of stochastic analysis in models, in the opinion of the authors, does not yet have a system analysis. Based on the carried out analysis, the authors tried to form directions for the development of the agriculture sector modeling.
Highlights
Modeling of scenarios for global agriculture has become more significant for agricultural policy design
Models may include relationships with individual sectors with close links to primary agriculture or the economy as a whole
A computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used for modeling of the behavior of all participants of the world economy such as producers, consumers, importers, exporters, investors, taxpayers, and government
Summary
Modeling of scenarios for global agriculture has become more significant for agricultural policy design. The situation on a world agriculture market such as agricultural and food prices rising and forecasts for real commodity prices cause concerns about the capacity of the agriculture to provide increasing demand. Agroeconomic models is the tools, wich can help to analyze possible developments in the future and alternative strategies to influence these developments. Agriculture sector models allow a better understanding of the diversity of interrelations and factors, substantiate causal relationships, study the long-term effects of making decisions, systematically examine trade processes both at the regional and international levels, to conduct scenario calculations and to assess their consequences, etc
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