Agriculture related methane emissions embodied in China's interprovincial trade

Abstract

Given that agriculture is the predominant source of anthropogenic methane, evaluating the spatio-temporal trends of agriculture related CH4 emissions embodied in trade and the related drivers is an important prerequisite for climate goals. This study first adopted the IPCC tier 2 method to account agriculture related methane emissions, by taking China as a case. The embodied CH4 emissions in the interprovincial trade were then explored by employing multiregional input-output analysis. Socioeconomic factors impacting embodied emissions were uncovered. The results show that the direct CH4 emissions from agriculture in China decreased from 15.50 Tg in 2010 to 12.49 Tg in 2020, mainly contributed by the decrease from livestock production. The direct emissions were dominated by Hunan, Sichuan and Jiangxi broken down by provinces, and rice cultivation and enteric fermentation by process. Total amount of embodied CH4 emissions increased from 11.36 Tg in 2012 to 12.10 Tg in 2015, and decreased to 11.48 Tg in 2017. Shandong had the largest embodied CH4 net inflow, while Heilongjiang had the largest embodied CH4 net outflow. The significant increases in embodied CH4 net outflow of Western China transferred from North were found. GDP per-capita and food production per unit GDP had the most positive and negative contributions to the embodied emissions, respectively. Reliability of the results was further demonstrated by using sensitivity analysis and comparing with similar studies. Finally, implications were raised, including reducing the direct emission intensities, bringing embodied CH4 emission into decision making and setting the interprovincial cooperation mechanisms.