Abstract
Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places. The livelihoods of many croppers and livestock keepers in Africa are associated with diversity of options. The changes in crop and livestock production that are likely to result in a 4°C+ world will diminish the options available to most smallholders. In such a world, current crop and livestock varieties and agricultural practices will often be inadequate, and food security will be more difficult to achieve because of commodity price increases and local production shortfalls. While adaptation strategies exist, considerable institutional and policy support will be needed to implement them successfully on the scale required. Even in the 2°C+ world that appears inevitable, planning for and implementing successful adaptation strategies are critical if agricultural growth in the region is to occur, food security be achieved and household livelihoods be enhanced. As part of this effort, better understanding of the critical thresholds in global and African food systems requires urgent research.
Highlights
Agricultural and food systems globally face considerable challenges in the coming decades
These results show clearly that the increases in length of growing period (LGP) projected for parts of East Africa will not translate into increased agricultural productivity; maize production is projected to decline by 19 per cent and bean production by 47 per cent, all other things being equal, with little or no change for the pasture grass
In a 5◦C+ world, the transition zone increases in size to some 1.2 million km2. With such warming, the proportion of this transition zone that is in areas of high accessibility increases to about 50 per cent. Such conditions would mean considerable loss of cropland in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); and increasing amounts of this land would be in the hinterlands of large urban areas with already high population densities
Summary
Agricultural and food systems globally face considerable challenges in the coming decades. Average yields for the three crops are shown in table 1 on a regional basis for current conditions and for the 2090s with a 5◦C temperature increase These results show clearly that the increases in LGP projected for parts of East Africa will not translate into increased agricultural productivity; maize production is projected to decline by 19 per cent and bean production by 47 per cent, all other things (such as area sown) being equal, with little or no change for the pasture grass. Wide-ranging policies would be needed to adapt to these greater migratory pressures, and in many cases, migration would need to be encouraged, not avoided, and the most vulnerable enabled to move [35]
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