Abstract

Energy-use projections based on some of the forces shaping the agriculture industry are outlined, and it is recommended that policies allow the price mechanism to operate rather than let allocations and price controls discourage energy development investments. Basic fuel use and energy applications are expected to continue until 2000. A sectoral analysis of energy use by fuel type shows how various fuels are applied in the food system and suggests there are good reasons for each choice. Changes in the method of application before 2000 will occur if either the availability or relative prices of fuels is altered enough to cause fuel or product substitution. Fuel shortages due to distribution problems and population growth are seen to promote more substitution, although investments could be channeled toward fuel storage instead of alternative fuels. Some renewable fuels will be introduced as gas prices rise, but tested procedures will continue to avoid unknown risks. Consumer preference, which dictates the form and quality of food products, may give way to an emphasis on nutritional value. 10 references.

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