Abstract
This study focuses on the quantification of climate change (CC) effects on agricultural water availability in Cyprus. Projections of climatic variables, based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used as CC driving forces affecting water availability. Groundwater flow models were developed for specific high-interest agricultural areas in Larnaca and Paphos to assess the CC impacts on these groundwater systems, while the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was also adopted, for the first time in Cyprus, to assess future trends of water reservoir storage under the projected climatic conditions. Considering the current cultivation and irrigation practices, a decrease in groundwater level close to 1 m and further inland seawater intrusion in Larnaca aquifers are expected, while in Paphos’ aquifers, the predicted water table fluctuations are not significant. Additionally, SPEI values at the Asprokemos and Kouris dams are correlated with water storage measurements, showing that a SPEI downward trend observed in these reservoirs could set off an alarm to the water authorities with respect to water availability as more severe drought events are expected in the future. The expected pressure on surface waters imposes the need for an improved water management plan that will not depend on the further exploitation of groundwater.
Highlights
Recent anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly driven by population growth, economic activity, lifestyle, energy and land use patterns, are the highest in current history, leading to climate changes that affect human and natural systems [1]
Based on the results obtained from the different simulation runs, performed for the assessment of climate change impact on the groundwater resources, an additional decline of the water table close to 1 m was observed during the dry period of a predicted dry year for both the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), as shown in the spatial distributions of chloride concentrations for (a) the base hydrological year and (b) for the predicted extreme dry hydrological year, as foreseen based on MPI-RCA4 model and RCP 4.5, are presented for comparisons reasons
In the present analysis for Cyprus, the assessment of climate change impacts on drought, based on Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) evolution under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at locations close to water reservoirs used for irrigation purposes, indicate that the future period (2031–2060) will be drier than the reference one (1972–2000)
Summary
Recent anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly driven by population growth, economic activity, lifestyle, energy and land use patterns, are the highest in current history, leading to climate changes that affect human and natural systems [1]. The agricultural sector is threatened by climate change due to changing precipitation and temperature patterns and especially due to the foreseen increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods [2]. In 2015, the United Nations Member States, having recognized the potential threats imposed by climate change on food security, included in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Goal 2: “End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture”. This issue further affects the sustainability and happiness of people in areas suffering from water scarcity and drought.
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