Agricultural transformations: climate change adaptation and farmer decision making

Abstract

Over the long-term, global climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural productivity in the U.S. Corn Belt. Climate change will also exacerbate problems with soil loss through wind and water erosion in addition to environmental externalities associated with current land use practices, thus driving greater vulnerability of the Corn Belt agroecosystem. There is minimal research that examines how Corn Belt farmers will respond to climate change stressors and whether subsequent adaptive responses will alleviate or further exacerbate challenges in meeting production and conservation goals. This dissertation research explores farmer decision making in the context of climate change adaptation through the adoption and use of key management practices that can have soil and water conservation benefits. This research examines three distinct but connected studies that include qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods analyses. Quantitative data include a survey of large-scale Corn Belt farmers (n=4,778) sampled from 22 six-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC6) watersheds and secondary data from the 2012 Agricultural Census. Qualitative data were collected via in-depth interviews with 159 farmers across nine states in the Midwest (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, South Dakota, and Missouri). Findings from the quantitative research suggest that farmers who believe they should adjust their practices to protect their farm from the negative impacts of increased weather variability are more likely to increase their use of no-till farming, cover crops, and tile drainage. Additionally, visiting with other farmers to observe their practices was positively associated with farmers increased use of the adaptive strategies examined. Famers with experience using no-till farming, cover crops, and tile drainage were also more likely to plan on increasing their use of these practices in response to climate