Abstract
The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to forecast US energy production, consumption, and price trends for a 25-yr-time horizon. Biomass is one of the technologies within NEMS, which plays a key role in several scenarios. An endogenously determined biomass supply schedule is used to derive the price-quantity relationship of biomass. There are four components to the NEMS biomass supply schedule including: agricultural residues, energy crops, forestry residues, and urban wood waste/mill residues. The EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 includes updated estimates of the agricultural residue portion of the biomass supply schedule. The changes from previous agricultural residue supply estimates include: revised assumptions concerning corn stover and wheat straw residue availabilities, inclusion of non-corn and non-wheat agricultural residues (such as barley, rice straw, and sugarcane bagasse), and the implementation of assumptions concerning increases in no-till farming. This article will discuss the impact of these changes on the supply schedule.
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