Abstract
Agricultural productivity, and its variation in space and time, plays a fundamental role in many theories of human social evolution. However, we often lack systematic information about the productivity of past agricultural systems on a large enough scale in order to be able to test these theories properly. The effect of climate on crop yields has received a great deal of attention resulting in a range of empirical and process-based models, yet the focus has primarily been on current or future conditions. In this paper, we argue for a “bottom-up” approach that estimates productivity, or potential productivity based on information about the agricultural practices and technologies used in past societies. Of key theoretical interest is using this information to estimate the carrying capacity of a given region, independently of estimates of population size. We outline how explicit crop yield models can be combined with high quality historical and archaeological information about past societies, in order to infer the temporal and geographic patterns of change in agricultural productivity and potential. We discuss the kinds of information we need to collect about agricultural techniques and practices in the past, and introduce a new databank initiative we have developed for collating the best available historical and archaeological evidence. A key benefit of our approach lies in making explicit the steps in the process of estimating past productivities and carrying capacities, and in being able to assess the effects of different modelling assumptions. This is undoubtedly an ambitious task, yet promises to provide important insights into fundamental aspects of past societies, and will enable us to test more rigorously key hypotheses about human socio-cultural evolution.
Highlights
For the vast majority of our evolutionary history, humans subsisted by hunting animals and gathering plants
We outline how explicit crop yield models can be combined with high quality historical and archaeological information about past societies in order to infer how agricultural productivity and potential have changed temporally and geographically
The paper has the following structure: First, we introduce the ways in which agriculture is involved in theories about human social evolution, and stress the need to scientifically test between competing hypotheses
Summary
For the vast majority of our evolutionary history, humans subsisted by hunting animals and gathering plants. Around 12,000 years ago, we began to take a more direct role in the process of food production, domesticating animals and cultivating crops in order to meet our nutritional requirements (Mazoyer and Roudart 2006) This subsistence revolution is thought to have occurred independently in a limited number of places (a list would include at least the Fertile Crescent region of the Near East, China, Mesoamerica, South America, and New Guinea). This new way of life is arguably the most important process in human history, and its dramatic consequences have set the scene for the world we live in today. We outline how explicit crop yield models can be combined with high quality historical and archaeological information about past societies in order to infer how agricultural productivity and potential have changed temporally and geographically
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
