Agricultural Management and Climatic Change Are the Major Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the UK.

Fiona Burns,Simon R Wotton,Mark Parsons,Nida Al Fulaij,Tom Brereton,David R Brooks,Kate E Barlow,Björn C Beckmann,Gary D Powney,Ian Henderson,Peter Stroh,Helen E Roy,Mark A Eaton,Richard D Gregory,John W Wilkinson,David G Noble,Peter M J Brown,Kevin Walker,Tony Gent

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151595

Abstract

Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species’ populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species’ populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species’ population change (~1970–2012) has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates). In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs.

Highlights

Despite the efforts of conservationists, and widespread public support for conservation action, biodiversity continues to be lost and is predicted to decline further by 2020 [1,2]
Within the UK, the National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA; [6]) combined expert opinion with the best available information, and suggested that since the 1940s habitat change, pollution and nutrient enrichment were the major drivers of change, that overexploitation and climatic change were important drivers of change, and invasive species a moderate driver of change
We extend the quantitative/qualitative framework introduced by the NEA to assess the drivers of change in a large sample of UK species and taxonomic groups

Summary

Introduction

Despite the efforts of conservationists, and widespread public support for conservation action, biodiversity continues to be lost and is predicted to decline further by 2020 [1,2]. This loss has been observed at many scales, enabled by a growth in our ability to measure change. The most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service changes are considered to be habitat change and degradation, climatic change, invasive species (native and non-native), overexploitation, and pollution [5]. It suggested that overexploitation, invasive species and especially climatic change would have ongoing impacts on habitat extent and condition

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion