Abstract
Agriculture is the mainstay of Pakistan’s economy. However, it has been noticed that farmers are increasingly giving up agriculture in favor of non-agricultural activities. This study was conducted in the Khairpur district of Sindh province, which is part of the Indus Plains in Pakistan. The main purpose of the study was to investigate the current and future land use change (LUC) trends and to study farmers’ perceptions of the causes and consequences of LUC and agricultural land abandonment (ALA) in the study area. The study used field survey data and secondary data obtained from the government sources. The results show that agricultural land in the region has decreased by about 9% in the past two decades. Survey data analysis confirms this because more than 80% of farmers believe that agricultural land in the area has declined over time. In addition, farmers believe that socioeconomic and environmental changes are the main reasons for LUC and ALA. We used a logistic regression model to determine the factors that influence farmers’ decisions to sell agricultural land for other uses. The results show that the age, income, land ownership, farm inheritance by successors, social networks and lack of basic facilities in the study area are the main determinants of farmers’ decisions to sell agricultural lands. In particular, farmers’ integration into the social network and their belief that the farm will be inherited by heirs reduces the possibility of selling land. As for the consequences of LUC and ALA, the results indicate that farmland prices, weeds infestation, urban diffusion, and pressure on existing infrastructure have increased in the study area. In addition, the results show that the prospects of farming in the area remain grim as most farmers indicated that they were willing to abandon agricultural lands in favor of other revenue generation activities. The study suggests that policymakers should pay close attention to controlling rapid LUC and ALA to keep lands green.
Highlights
Rural landscapes around the world are undergoing dramatic changes, manifested in agricultural decline and land abandonment, especially in mountainous regions [1,2]
Agricultural land abandonment (ALA) is a term commonly used to describe uncultivated land, abandoned land, and neglected land, posing a threat to neighboring owners [3]
agricultural land abandonment (ALA) has become a major problem in Pakistan due to water shortages, climate change, and agricultural income decline
Summary
Rural landscapes around the world are undergoing dramatic changes, manifested in agricultural decline and land abandonment, especially in mountainous regions [1,2]. According to Joint Research Centre, ALA is defined as a significant reduction in land management, leading to undesirable changes in ecosystem services [4]. Another related term is farmland abandonment, which can be defined as the cessation of agricultural activities on a given surface of land rather than by other activities such as urbanization or afforestation [5]. Farmland abandonment is a major problem in Africa due to severe climate change [6] This problem is seen as a major environmental threat to the European regional structure, as a substantial area has been affected by agricultural abandonment [7]. ALA has become a major problem in Pakistan due to water shortages, climate change, and agricultural income decline
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