Abstract
Change in agricultural land use in Samara Oblast is analyzed on the basis of agricultural statistics, field observations, and satellite imagery. Besides the general decline in animal husbandry, three drivers of spatial change are uncovered—accessibility to the major urban areas, natural setting, and ethnic mix. Land surface phenology metrics are in line with these drivers. In particular, satellite imagery confirms the large amount of fallowed land in Samara. Overall, land abandonment reached its peak in the late 1990s, and was subsequently reversed but the amount of land used in crop farming has not reached the 1990 level. Spatial differentiation is also analyzed across three types of farms—former collective and state farms, household farms, and registered family businesses.
Highlights
Agricultural land use in Russia is undergoing profound changes
Potential gains due to projected climate change could be offset by increases in the frequency or shifts in the seasonality of extreme weather
Among the experts we interviewed were Samara’s Ministers of Economics and of Agriculture and the head of Samara’s Land Use Committee
Summary
Agricultural land use in Russia is undergoing profound changes. These changes arise from the combined effects of introducing capitalism and ongoing rural depopulation. As previous work has shown, in European Russia rural population density is an effective predictor of agricultural productivity [Ioffe et al 2004, Ioffe 2005]. There is a significant gap between potential (i.e., based on natural soil fertility) and actual yields in these countries. This gap is likely to offset the potential yield increase due to climate change [Olesen and Bindi 2002]. Potential gains due to projected climate change could be offset by increases in the frequency or shifts in the seasonality of extreme weather (e.g., droughts, [Dronin and Kirilenko 2011])
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