Abstract

The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.

Highlights

  • Climate change has attracted much attention in research, as well as from the general public in recent years

  • Regional temperature has increased in China, and the average annual temperature for the whole of China increased by 1.17 ◦ C (0.23 ◦ C/10a) from 1901 to 2016, the strongest regional increase was observed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with 0.37 ◦ C/10a, showing high sensitivity to global warming [2]

  • The results indicate that the winter wheat yield level of the Tibetan Plateau could of North enough irrigation water was available, but the fluctuation of winter wheat yield was reach theChina yieldsiflevel of North

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Summary

Introduction

Climate change has attracted much attention in research, as well as from the general public in recent years. A large number of studies focusing on temperature changes have shown that temperature is increasing worldwide [1]. Regional temperature has increased in China, and the average annual temperature for the whole of China increased by 1.17 ◦ C (0.23 ◦ C/10a) from 1901 to 2016, the strongest regional increase was observed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with 0.37 ◦ C/10a, showing high sensitivity to global warming [2]. Like global temperatures, which are projected to increase due to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases [1], the temperature is projected to continue to increase in China [3]. Public Health 2019, 16, 3686; doi:10.3390/ijerph16193686 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph

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