Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Egypt

Abstract

Egypt may be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as its primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, which is undergoing intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized the potential impact of climate change on two reference crops; dynamic crop simulation models were combined with climate change scenarios derived from three equilibrium General Circulation Models. Under the future climate, yields and water-use efficiency (WUE) were lower than those under current climate conditions, even when the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques that would result in no additional cost to the agricultural system did not improve the crop WUE or compensate for yield losses due to the warmer climate. Economic adjustments, such as improving the overall WUE of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives, are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, the negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.