Aging Passenger Car Fleet Structure, Dynamics, and Environmental Performance Evaluation at the Regional Level by Life Cycle Assessment

Abstract

The need to limit climate change and to improve air quality clearly is a driver for technology and policy changes in the transport sector. This study investigates how this technology shift at the European level ages personal car fleets at the regional level in Romania through second-hand imports. It also asks what how the situation will evolve in terms of environmental impacts. The study presents an in-depth assessment of the environmental performance and evolution of the passenger car fleet in Iasi County (Romania). The analysis is based on the car fleet structure and dynamic statistics, and uses the Copert 5.5 model to estimate the specific use-phase emissions, which subsequently are used as input data into an LCA analysis. The study considers three scenarios regarding fleet evolution and environmental performance, and focuses solely on the use phase of passenger cars. It models exhaust emissions in various driving situations (rural, urban, hot-cold operation, and peak-offpeak traffic values) and considers the current environmental performance classes and age of vehicles in the fleet. The results show that by considering these vehicle performance aspects, impacts are better represented. The no-change scenario would lead to a 2.5 times increase of global warming impacts by 2035 as compared to 2020, while by limiting the import of used cars and increasing the share of electric and hybrid vehicles would lead to mitigating these impacts.