Aging of rural population in Yugoslavia

Abstract

Mass migration to urban areas constitutes the basic direct factor of the decline in rural population of Yugoslavia in the second half of the 20th century. Due to the characteristic migration patterns by age and sex, they have had a substantial impact on the change in age structure of rural population towards rapid demographic ageing. By inducing decline in fertility and an increase in mortality, the newly formed age structure is increasingly becoming one of the basic factors to further decline in population, or even the major factor to rural depopulation in the majority of regions. The paper analyzes changes in age structure of rural population in the FR of Yugoslavia and across its republics and provinces during the period from 1961 to 1991. The conditions prevailing during the last census (1991) are particularly highlighted. The author points to distinct differences in ageing of urban versus rural populations, and considerable regional differences at the achieved level of demographic age. Based on the main demographic age indicators (the share of five-year and larger age groups, average age, ageing index and movement in major age-specific contingents), the author concludes that the process of population ageing had taken place in both rural and urban populations, but was more intensive in villages (higher share of the aged, higher index of ageing and higher average age) during the period under review. The author points to distinct ageing of rural population in all republics and provinces. It was most prominent in central Serbia and Vojvodina, while being quite slow in Kosovo and Metohia and recorded mainly in between the last two censuses (1981-1991). Likewise, Kosovo and Metohia constitute the only major region of Yugoslavia in which rural population in 1991 is still demographically younger than the population in urban settlements. Rural versus urban population ageing was much more intensive in other major regions of the country, both from the base and from the apex of the age pyramid. In view of the minimal differences in fertility and mortality levels by type of settlement (particularly in central Serbia and Vojvodina), the author argues that the inherited age structure constitutes the main cause of rapid acceleration in rural population ageing in low fertility regions.