Aggregated space combat modeling

Abstract

The use of aggregated combat modeling in the cislunar environment has been demonstrated to inform acquisition decisions for the United States Space Force (USSF). First, the cislunar space is hypothesized as a future strategic conflict environment. As such, Lanchester, Lotka–Volterra, and Brackney models could be appropriate to describe such conflict. All models encompass a system of differential equations which parametrically capture the dynamics between friendly and hostile forces. While the Brackney model was constructed to explain two-dimensional land battle, this article adapts it for the respective three-dimensional space domain and applies it to strategic procurement. The analysis demonstrates the pre-eminence of Space Domain Awareness (SDA) in certain contexts while recognizing conditions in which spacecraft survivability holds greater importance.