Agent-Based Models as “Interested Amateurs”

Peter Johnson

doi:10.3390/land4020281

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of agent-based models (ABMs) as “interested amateurs” in policy making, and uses the example of the SWAP model of soil and water conservation adoption to demonstrate the potential of this approach. Daniel Dennett suggests experts often talk past or misunderstand each other, seek to avoid offending each other or appearing ill-informed and generally err on the side of under-explaining a topic. Dennett suggests that these issues can be overcome by including “interested amateurs” in discussions between experts. In the context of land use policy debates, and policy making more generally, this paper suggests that ABMs have particular characteristics that make them excellent potential “interested amateurs” in discussions between our experts: policy stakeholders. This is demonstrated using the SWAP (Soil and Water Conservation Adoption) model, which was used with policy stakeholders in Ethiopia. The model was successful in focussing discussion, inviting criticism, dealing with sensitive topics and drawing out understanding between stakeholders. However, policy stakeholders were still hesitant about using such a tool. This paper reflects on these findings and attempts to plot a way forward for the use of ABMs as “interested amateurs” and, in the process, make clear the differences in approach to other participatory modelling efforts.

Highlights

Policy making is a complex process [1,2,3] involving many actors
This paper suggests that it is agent-based models (ABMs), via their overall design, agent rules, assumptions and results, that can play the role of “interested amateur” in policy making and, potentially aid the interaction of policy experts
Potential participants were identified based on their positions in the regional Bureaus of Agriculture and the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) working with them

Summary

Introduction

Policy making is a complex process [1,2,3] involving many actors. This is especially true of land use policy in which many different stakeholders interact. Land 2015, 4 little control over the process [4]. If not all, of these actors are experts in their policy area; their (and their organisation’s) combination of experience in policy making and the domain area mean that they often have detailed knowledge and strong opinions on what policies may and should be pursued and which actors should be included in the process.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion