Abstract
Water is of uttermost importance for human well-being and a central resource in sustainable development. Many simulation models for sustainable water management, however, lack explanatory and predictive power because the two-way dynamic feedbacks between human and water systems are neglected. With Agent-based Modelling of Resources (Aqua.MORE; here, of the resource water), we present a platform that can support understanding, interpretation and scenario development of resource flows in coupled human–water systems at the catchment scale. Aqua.MORE simulates the water resources in a demand and supply system, whereby water fluxes and socioeconomic actors are represented by individual agents that mutually interact and cause complex feedback loops. First, we describe the key steps for developing an agent-based model (ABM) of water demand and supply, using the platform Aqua.MORE. Second, we illustrate the modelling process by application in an idealized Alpine valley, characterized by touristic and agricultural water demand sectors. Here, the implementation and analysis of scenarios highlights the possibilities of Aqua.MORE (1) to easily deploy case study-specific agents and characterize them, (2) to evaluate feedbacks between water demand and supply and (3) to compare the effects of different agent behavior or water use strategies. Thereby, we corroborate the potential of Aqua.MORE as a decision-support tool for sustainable watershed management.
Highlights
In order to sustain crucial ecosystem services for current and future generations, resources need to be managed sustainably
The resource water is linked to a range of ecosystem services that are central to human well-being, including extractive water supply, in-stream water supply, and the provision of water-related cultural and supporting services [1]
Sivapalan et al [5,6] have shown with several examples that the investigation of the fully coupled human–water system produces more explanatory and predictive power compared to conventional approaches, especially for long-term predictions
Summary
In order to sustain crucial ecosystem services for current and future generations, resources need to be managed sustainably. All these ABM frameworks and model applications are limited to (1) one water use sector and/or to (2) a predefined set of agents and/or are (3) focusing on the water distribution by institutions and higher administrative units They are of limited use for detailed investigations of the various small-scale variabilities in water demand and supply characteristics, e.g., in topographically complex areas like the European Alps. Even though the European Alps exhibit a positive water supply–demand balance on a long-term (annual) basis [31], some regions (i.e., in the Southern belt and the inner zone) are repeatedly affected by short- to mid-term scarcity problems [32] These are often triggered by (unexpected) droughts, but can mostly be attributed to management conflicts between competing user interests for industry, drinking water supply, hydropower production, agriculture, ecology, etc. Sustainability 2019, 11, 6178 scenarios representing various decision and behavioral rules of the agents to corroborate the platform’s potential as a decision-support tool
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