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Abstract
Every sector needs to minimize GHG emissions to limit climate change. Emissions from transport, however, have remained mostly unchanged over the past thirty years. In particular, air travel for short-haul flights is a significant contributor to transport emissions. This article identifies factors that influence the demand for domestic air travel. An agent-based model was implemented for domestic travel in Germany to test policies that could be implemented to reduce air travel and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The agent-based long-distance travel demand model is composed of trip generation, destination choice, mode choice and CO<sub>2</sub> emission modules. The travel demand model was estimated and calibrated with the German Household Travel Survey, including socio-demographic characteristics and area type. Long-distance trips were differentiated by trip type (daytrip, overnight trip), trip purpose (business, leisure, private) and mode (auto, air, long-distance rail and long-distance bus). Emission factors by mode were used to calculate CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Potential strategies and policies to reduce air travel demand and its CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are tested using this model. An increase in airfares reduced the number of air trips and reduced transport emissions. Even stronger effects were found with a policy that restricts air travel to trips that are longer than a certain threshold distance. While such policies might be difficult to implement politically, restricting air travel has the potential to reduce total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from transport by 7.5%.
Highlights
According to the UN emissions gap report from 2019 (UN Environment Programme, 2019), emissions need to be reduced by 7.6% every year from 2020 to 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C
This research evaluated the potential of policies to reduce CO2 emissions produced by long‐distance travel
We used an agent‐based travel demand model to estimate the demand for long‐distance travel and coupled the model with a CO2 emissions calculator
Summary
According to the UN emissions gap report from 2019 (UN Environment Programme, 2019), emissions need to be reduced by 7.6% every year from 2020 to 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. While many sectors in Germany were able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years (including agriculture, manufacturing, Urban Planning, 2021, Volume 6, Issue 2, Pages 271–284 and energy), emissions from the transport sector stag‐ nated over the past 28 years (Umwelt Bundesamt, 2020). Despite the severe impacts of the pandemic on the airline industry, the concern about growing emissions from air travel remains unchanged in the long run. There is a need to study policies and reg‐ ulations that help reduce emissions from long‐distance travel. Long‐distance transport models may help to quan‐ tify the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This article focuses on the investigation of different policies that could be applied in the aviation sector to shift travel from air to ground modes
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