Agent-based simulation model to evaluate government policies for farmers’ adoption and synergy in improving irrigation systems: A case study of Lake Urmia basin

Abstract

The complexities of water issues, in which human factors directly affect the qualitative and quantitative indicators of water resources in a variable, extensive, and undefined manner, make social interactions necessary for the water resources sustainable development. In this situation, local government admins (local divisions of the Water Institutions and Ministry of Agriculture) (LGA) can play a fundamental role in attracting the participation of independent farmers in sustainable agriculture and preserving water resources by modifying support policies. In this study, an agent-based simulation model of social interactions and economic interests of farmers is presented along with different scenarios of support policies as well as random supervision and training by LGA agents to evaluate its impact on the independent decision making of farmers in the form of a complex adaptive system. Questionnaires and expert interviews were used to determine the data and scenarios. Farmers’ adaptation for development technology in irrigation management (DTIM), simulated output of WP, field application efficiency (FAE), and their adaptation speed are influenced by input factors such as assumed cost of sustainable water supply (SWS), mean government expenditure (subsidy count), and the level of supervision and training by LGA. The results showed that the assumed cost of SWS and government supervision and training are the most influential indicators of the farmer agent’s propensity to DTIM with F-value=4375.59 and F-value=1055.10, respectively. The results confirm that appropriate policies in strengthening LGA supervision and training and increasing farmers’ awareness of the importance of long-term water resource sustainability can help achieve more adaptability.