Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Epidemic Forecasting during Hajj Seasons in Saudi Arabia

Arwa Abdulaziz Allinjawi,Sultanah Mohammed Alshammari,Nofe Ateq Alganmi,Mohammed Hassan Ba-Aoum

doi:10.3390/info12080325

Arwa Abdulaziz Allinjawi, Sultanah Mohammed Alshammari + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/info12080325

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Abstract

The religious pilgrimage of Hajj is one of the largest annual gatherings in the world. Every year approximately three million pilgrims travel from all over the world to perform Hajj in Mecca in Saudi Arabia. The high population density of pilgrims in confined settings throughout the Hajj rituals can facilitate infectious disease transmission among the pilgrims and their contacts. Infected pilgrims may enter Mecca without being detected and potentially transmit the disease to other pilgrims. Upon returning home, infected international pilgrims may introduce the disease into their home countries, causing a further spread of the disease. Computational modeling and simulation of social mixing and disease transmission between pilgrims can enhance the prevention of potential epidemics. Computational epidemic models can help public health authorities predict the risk of disease outbreaks and implement necessary intervention measures before or during the Hajj season. In this study, we proposed a conceptual agent-based simulation framework that integrates agent-based modeling to simulate disease transmission during the Hajj season from the arrival of the international pilgrims to their departure. The epidemic forecasting system provides a simulation of the phases and rituals of Hajj following their actual sequence to capture and assess the impact of each stage in the Hajj on the disease dynamics. The proposed framework can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the different public health interventions that can be implemented during the Hajj, including size restriction and screening at entry points.

Highlights

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a serious threat to public health
By tracking infections in international pilgrims departing back to their home countries, the model can estimate the potential risk of disease outbreaks among returning pilgrims and their contacts to identify the likelihood of disease spread at regional and global levels
Many epidemic forecasting models have been proposed in different settings, especially with the emergence of the recent coronavirus, this study provides increased enhancements for epidemic forecasting during global mass gatherings in general and in the Hajj season

Summary

Introduction

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a serious threat to public health. Due to their large scale and dynamic nature, mass gatherings (MGs) pose a significant threat to public health [9] These gatherings, such as sports events, religious pilgrimages, music concerts, and other festivals, are challenging settings to estimate, control, and respond to potential disease outbreaks. Several epidemic models were explored to simulate the spread of the COVID-19 disease [18], estimate the size of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak locally and globally [19], and to assess the effectiveness of the applied preventative measures in different settings [20,21]. A data-driven framework was proposed for assessing disease spread at the annual global religious gathering of Hajj using epidemic modeling and agent-based simulation.

Global Mass Gatherings and Disease Epidemics

Epidemic Forecasting Framework

Underlying Models

Results and Discussion

Conclusions