Abstract
Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model are developed for modeling the hybrid relational structure and complex operational processes, respectively. To intuitively elucidate this method, the agent based modeling is used to simulate the terrorist network and test the performance in diverse scenarios. Based on the experimental results, we show how the changes of operational environments affect the development of terrorist organization in terms of its recovery and capacity to perform future tasks. The potential strategies are also discussed, which can be used to restrain the activities of terrorists.
Highlights
A key aspect of studying terrorist network is to investigate the organizational dynamics and the mechanism by which its structure grows and changes over time [1]
We study the organizational dynamics of terrorist network by employing the computational experimentation method
In order to study the organizational dynamics of terrorist network, the agent based modeling is employed to construct the computational framework of the terrorist organization
Summary
A key aspect of studying terrorist network is to investigate the organizational dynamics and the mechanism by which its structure grows and changes over time [1]. Many reported empirical works have studied the structural characteristics of terrorist network using Social Network Analysis (SNA) [8,9,10,11] They provide both qualitative and quantitative results with empirical data and are helpful in understanding the relational structure and finding key elements (individual, subgroup, etc.). Based on the ABM method, changes detection of organizational network characteristics [20], network coevolution of social and geospatial dimensions [22], and dynamics between networks [15] are investigated These reported works studied the terrorist network from different perspectives and provided useful results to investigate how the terrorists act and its influence on the organizational dynamics.
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