Agent-Based Modeling of the Hajj Rituals with the Possible Spread of COVID-19

Hamad Al Jassmi,Norah S. Farooqi,Bilal Hejase,Abdessamad Tridane,Ali M. Al-Shaery

doi:10.3390/su13126923

Hamad Al Jassmi, Norah S. Farooqi + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126923

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Abstract

With the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continuing to spread around the globe, there is an unprecedented need to develop different approaches to containing the pandemic from spreading further. One particular case of importance is mass-gathering events. Mass-gathering events have been shown to exhibit the possibility to be superspreader events; as such, the adoption of effective control strategies by policymakers is essential to curb the spread of the pandemic. This paper deals with modeling the possible spread of COVID-19 in the Hajj, the world’s largest religious gathering. We present an agent-based model (ABM) for two rituals of the Hajj: Tawaf and Ramy al-Jamarat. The model aims to investigate the effect of two control measures: buffers and face masks. We couple these control measures with a third control measure that can be adopted by policymakers, which is limiting the capacity of each ritual. Our findings show the impact of each control measure on the curbing of the spread of COVID-19 under the different crowd dynamics induced by the constraints of each ritual.

Highlights

The Hajj is considered to be one of the largest mass gatherings in the world
We present an agent-based model to study the effect of different control measures on the progression of infection during the Hajj pilgrimage
We introduced an agent-based model to model and quantitatively evaluate the effect of two control measures, face masks and entry buffers, on the progress of an infection event during the Hajj ritual

Summary

Introduction

It is an annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, which has drawn an average of two million pilgrims per year It consists of a series of rituals that must be performed within certain spatial and temporal constraints. Due to the unique dynamics of the Hajj and a push by policymakers to provide a safe pilgrimage, extensive research has been conducted towards crowd management, control and simulation. Technological advancements such as computer systems, sensors, mobile applications, wireless systems and immersive technologies have been proposed as solutions for safe crowd management and control [1,2,3]. Agent-based modeling has emerged as a tool to model the progression and effects of COVID-19 with regard to different aspects, such as health, the economy and facilities [9,10,11,12]

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