Agent-based Model for Predictive Assessment of the Migration Flows Dynamics in Municipal areas of the Bashkortostan Republic depending on Changes in the Population Life Quality

Abstract

Favorable demographic and migration situation in the region contributes to its economic prosperity, since qualified personnel are necessary for successful development of the production potential of the territory. The migration attractiveness of the territory is determined by the population life quality, which implies not only high incomes of citizens, but also the development of transport and social infrastructure, accessibility of educational and medical services, favorable climate and environmental conditions, availability of jobs. The article describes the mathematical apparatus for calculating the integral indicator of the population life quality. To support decision-making on managing migration processes, an agent-oriented model is proposed that allows predicting the intensity of migration flows in the municipal districts of the Bashkortostan Republic depending on changes in the population life quality. Algorithms for choosing a place of residence and placement of production facilities for the agents "Resident" and "Enterprise" are described in detail. The output data of the model are forecasts of changes in the satisfaction of residents of the territory with the life quality, the number of migrants in the municipal district, the level of economic development of enterprises. Based on the current Federal Program “Integrated Development of Single-Industry Towns”, scenario experiments were conducted, which made it possible to predict the indicators of migration growth of the territories of the Republic of Bashkortostan involved in the implementation of the program.