Agent-based model development of a complex socio-ecological system: Methods for overcoming data and domain limitations

Abstract

Agent-based models (ABMs) are appropriate tools for modelling socio-ecological systems due to their ability to handle complexity. However, development of such models is often an intensive process. There are many tutorials on the general methods and steps in ABM development but there are not necessarily practical details on how to overcome certain challenges. Honeybush (Cyclopia spp.), a kind of fynbos vegetation found in the Western and Eastern Cape mountains, is an important ecological and agricultural product in South Africa. It is considered a complex system due to its variability and unpredictability. The honeybush tea industry faces the challenge of meeting emerging market demands while maintaining sustainable harvesting practices, in the midst of an uncertain future due to climate change. We created a prototype model, HoneybushModel, using the MARS framework, a C# multi-agent simulation toolkit. The model was validated using historic data. Whilst outlining the development processes used to create the HoneybushModel, this paper provides a methodology for the development of such models and demonstrates techniques for addressing data, domain and framework limitations. The implemented model also acts as a case study for similar systems that could be modelled using an ABM.