Agent-based evaluation of humanitarian relief goods supply capability

Abstract

Natural disasters cause great damage to lives, assets, and the economy. In disaster areas, relief goods are essential sources of life supplies, particularly in the post-disaster context. This study develops a prototype of a spatially explicit agent-based model and uses it to evaluate the deviation of end products between supply and demand for humanitarian relief goods in the areas affected by disaster within a specified time frame. The case modeled here is the supply of refined oil to areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The approach focuses on supply and uses socio-spatial datasets, as well as transport and refined oil supply data. Based on the supply of refined oil to the disaster areas after the disaster, this study conducted a quantitative analysis using agent-based simulation of the humanitarian relief supply chain. The study finds that the approach is viable, despite the limitations of publicly available datasets on relief goods in China. The study asserts that this approach has potential in assisting policymakers seeking to identify system vulnerabilities and increase resilience in disaster-prone and disaster areas.