Age-dependent failure probabilities of corroding concrete sewer pipes under traffic loads

Abstract

Concrete pipes are frequently used in the wastewater infrastructure. These buried structures are prone to ageing and deterioration, as well as damage under excessive stresses from traffic. This study presents the first set of temporal fragility models for underground concrete sewer pipes under the compounding effects of corrosion and truck loads. To address the high computational costs of fragility modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) – a machine-learning based meta-model – are trained using a high-fidelity computational model of buried concrete pipes. The BART models are subsequently applied to develop age-dependent fragility models for serviceability and collapse of pipes conditional on truck loads. Considered uncertainties include statistically significant concrete and soil properties, truck load, and environmental factors that affect the corrosion of concrete sewer pipes. Results indicate that the direction of traffic stream, the degree of loss of wall thickness due to corrosion, and the maximum allowed truck load are critical factors that must be considered when planning inspection, rehabilitation, and retrofit of this underground infrastructure. According to the results, concrete sewer pipes buried in perpendicular to the direction of traffic flow are more vulnerable than those that are parallel to the direction of traffic flow. The results highlight that the probability of collapse is insignificant when it comes to vehicles weighing less than the design truck weight; however, the probability of collapse significantly increases for the moderate and severe corroded sewer pipes when it comes to the overweight vehicles. The age-dependent fragility models indicate that for sewer pipes buried perpendicular to the direction of traffic stream with service life of less than 25 years, the probability of the first major structural defect is less than 5%. This is also true for sewer pipes that have been in service for less than 45 years if the traffic stream is parallel to the buried pipe. The developed fragility models also constitute a key component of quantitative risk assessment of underground wastewater collection systems.