Age–time patterns of radiogenic cancer risk: their nature and likely explanations

Abstract

It is important for both radiation protection and scientific reasons to understandthe age–time patterns of radiation cancer risk. This is surprisingly difficult evenfor acute exposures and much more so for prolonged exposures. I shall providecurrent information on this for solid cancers among atomic-bomb survivors,pointing out some of the difficulties in description and interpretation. Ishall then take up some stochastic considerations regarding accumulationof mutations, which may help in dealing with these difficulties. Theseconsiderations are highly idealised, and their consequences should mainly beused only for guidance rather than as a primary basis for descriptiveanalyses. They are particularly suitable for this because they provide insightsfairly independent of parameter values in the stochastic models involved.