Abstract
In this paper, the age-specific population of Bangladesh based on a linear first order (hyperbolic) partial differential equation which is known as Von-Foerster Equation is studied. Applying quadratic polynomial curve fitting, the total population and population density of Bangladesh are projected for the years 2001 to 2050 based on the explicit upwind finite difference scheme for the age-structured population model based on given data (source: BBS & ICDDR, B) for initial value in the year 2001. For each age-group, the future birth rates and death rates are estimated by using quadratic polynomial curve fitting of the data for the years 2001 to 2012. Quadratic polynomial curve fitting is also used for the boundary value as the (0 - 4) age-group population based on the population size of the age-group for the years 2001 to 2012.
Highlights
The fast growth of population during the past decades has frustrated the development efforts in Bangladesh
We have considered a continuous and deterministic mathematical model known as Von-Foerster model, which is a linear first order partial differential equation used to predict population distribution by age at any time, given the initial distribution and the variation of birth and death rates with age and time
We have predicted the age distribution population up to the year 2050. In this experiment we have provided the data for birth rate and death rate up to 2012 from [7] and [8] respectively
Summary
The fast growth of population during the past decades has frustrated the development efforts in Bangladesh. (2015) Age-Structured Population Projection of Bangladesh by Using a Partial Differential Model with Quadratic Polynomial Curve Fitting. In order to make an efficient planning for the demands of different age-group, it is important to predict the age-structured population of the country. In this paper we project the future age-structured population of Bangladesh based on a partial differential equation model. The information we get from age-specified population group can help us in future planning of social and economical development. If we can predict the population of children of 0 - 4 years old, we can provide necessary medical care and baby food to reduce the mortality rate and keep children healthy and nourished. We can provide human resource development program for young people to reduce the unemployment problem and proper health care to elder people
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