Abstract
Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.
Highlights
As honeybee populations continue to decline on a global scale [1], research efforts have been directed at identifying the underlying causes [2,3,4,5]
Our results demonstrate that the age structure that is inherent to all honeybee colonies has critical effects on colony survival that are not captured by previously explored age-independent models
An age-dependent recruitment rate has a profound impact on the dynamics, severity and spread of an infection in a bee colony
Summary
As honeybee populations continue to decline on a global scale [1], research efforts have been directed at identifying the underlying causes [2,3,4,5]. We present a mathematical model that combines the disease-free demographics of a honeybee colony with the effects of seasonal changes and a disease that at first infects foragers, and spreads to the rest of the colony. Earlier versions of this model were introduced by Khoury et al in 2011 and 2013 [11,12] and were developed further in 2014 [13]. In the presence of disease, the two classes of bees are further divided into the susceptible (disease-free) populations, HS and FS, and the infected populations, HI and FI
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