Age-specific disparity in life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature: A nationwide time-series study in China

Abstract

Age-specific discrepancy of mortality burden attributed to temperature, measured as years of life lost (YLL), has been rarely investigated. We investigated age-specific temperature-YLL rates (per 100,000) relationships and quantified YLL per death caused by non-optimal temperature in China. We collected daily meteorological data, population data and daily death counts from 364 locations in China during 2006–2017. YLL was divided into three age groups (0–64 years, 65–74 years, and ≥75 years). A distributed lag non-linear model was first employed to estimate the associations of temperature with age-specific YLL rates in each location. Then we pooled the associations using a multivariate meta-analysis. Finally, we calculated age-specific average YLL per death caused by temperature by cause of death and region. We observed greater effects of cold and hot temperature on YLL rates for the elderly compared with the young population by region or cause of death. However, YLL per death due to non-optimal temperature for different regions or causes of death decreased with age, with 2.0 (95 % CI:1.5, 2.5), 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) and 1.0 years (0.9, 1.2) life loss per death for populations aged 0–64 years, 65–74 years and over 75 years, respectively. Most life loss per death results from moderate temperature, especially moderate cold for all age groups. The effect of non-optimal temperature on YLL rates is smaller for younger populations than older ones, while the temperature-related life loss per death was more prominent for younger populations.