Age-sex structure and depopulation in Serbia: 2002-2022

Abstract

Based on the results of the last three censuses, the population of Serbia has decreased by almost a million inhabitants in the past two decades (2002-2022). The main reason for depopulation and its intensification in Serbia is the increasingly pronounced negative natural increase, contributing 78% to the overall decrease in the number of inhabitants. In the same period, there were more emigrations than immigrations to Serbia, an average of about 11,000 per year. The main characteristic of the changes, in the period 2002-2022, in the age-sex structure of the population is the continuation of the demographic aging and the feminization of the elderly population. The age structure emerges as a basic determinant of population dynamics because it is both the cause and the consequence of demographic trends. When it comes to changes in the age-sex structure of the population, the intense reduction should be pointed out in the female population in the reproductive age (15-49 years), which is over 400 thousand smaller in 2022 compared to 2002. Analysis of the census results shows that depopulation is generally present and that even 95% of settlements in Serbia have fewer inhabitants in 2022 than in 2002. The largest relative decrease in the number of inhabitants is in areas with a small population, where the age structure dominantly determines the intensity of depopulation. The population has been halved in every fourth settlement in Serbia, and the largest number of these settlements are in the eastern and southeastern parts of Serbia. Population growth was recorded in a few settlements, where Novi Sad (35%) and Novi Pazar (29%) should be singled out. The effects of the unfavorable age structure will continue to greatly influence the future population movement in Serbia, surpassing the importance of the fertility level and emigration. Consequently, the population extinction of many settlements and population concentration in the largest cities is expected.