Age-related patterns in nonmedical prescription opioid use and disorder in the US population at ages 12-34 from 2002 to 2014*

Abstract

ObjectivesTo estimate age-related patterns in nonmedical prescription opioid (NMPO) use in the US population and disorder among past-year users at ages 12–34 between 2002 and 2014, controlling for period and birth-cohort effects. MethodsData are from 13 consecutive cross-sectional National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N=542,556). Synthetic longitudinal cohorts spanning ages 12–34 were created and an age-period-cohort analysis was implemented based on the Intrinsic Estimator algorithm. ResultsIn every birth cohort, past-year NMPO use increases during adolescence, peaks at ages 18–21, decreases through ages 30–34; disorder among past-year users increases from ages 18–21 through 30–34. Use at ages 12–34 decreased from the 1984-87 birth cohorts to more recently-born cohorts. Peak prevalence of use at ages 18–21 has also decreased, and the rates of increase from ages 14–17 to ages 18–21 are slowing down. Disorder at ages 18–34 increased from the 1976-79 to 1992-95 cohorts, but decreased at ages 12–17 from the 1992-95 to the most recently-born 2000–02 cohorts. The years 2010–2014 were characterized by lower NMPO use but higher disorder than 2002–2009. ConclusionsIncreasing NMPO disorder among users aged 18–34 warrants concern. However, declining NMPO use among 12–34 year-olds, a declining rate of increase from adolescence to early adulthood, and a suggestive decline in disorder among the most recent adolescent cohorts may forecast a potential reduction in the public health crisis associated with NMPO drugs.