Age-related driver injury occurrence from crashes at curve–grade combined segments

Abstract

Objectives Due to their relatively complex roadway characteristics, horizontal and vertical curve segments are associated with decreased visibility and a higher risk of rollovers. Multiple studies have identified the associated risk of young and older drivers separately in such complicated driving environments. This study investigated the relationship between driver age and injury occurrence from crashes occurring along curve–grade combined segments. Methods Crash data recorded in Ohio State between 2012 and 2017 were used in this study. Driver age was categorized into 3 groups: teen (age <20 years), adult (age 20–64), and older adult (age >64). Descriptive statistics were summarized using random forest, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to estimate the probability of a driver incurring an injury in case of a crash at curve–grade combined segments. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used to select the best performing model. Partial dependence plots (PDPs) were used to interpret the model results. Results The probability of injury occurrence is different for older drivers compared to teen and adult drivers. Although teen and adult drivers showed a higher probability of sustaining injuries in crashes with an increase in the degree of curvature, older drivers were more likely to sustain injuries in roadways with higher annual average daily traffic (AADT), steeper grades, and more occupants in the vehicle. Older drivers were observed to have a higher probability of sustaining injuries during peak hours and when unrestrained compared to teen and adult drivers. Conclusions The results emphasize the significance of tailored education and outreach countermeasures, particularly for teen and older drivers, aimed at decreasing the likelihood of injuries in such driving environments. This research adds to the expanding body of knowledge concerning the age-related occurrence of driver injuries resulting from crashes at curve–grade combined segments. The study findings provide insights into the potential over- or underrepresentation of certain age groups in analyzing crash injury occurrence. The insights gained from the machine learning analysis could also assist policymakers, transportation agencies, and traffic safety experts in developing targeted strategies to enhance road safety and protect vulnerable age groups.