Age-period-cohort analysis on kidney cancer mortality trend in China, 1992-2016

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the current status and long-term trend of kidney cancer mortality in China from 1992 to 2016. Methods: Mortality data of kidney cancer were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The online analysis tool of age-period-cohort model provided by the National Institutes of Health was used to analyze the death data of kidney cancer in China from 1992 to 2016. Results: From 1992 to 2016, the crude and standardized mortality rates of kidney cancer in Chinese men and women showed an overall increasing trend, with a large increase. The estimated average annual percentage change (AAPC) in kidney cancer mortality for men was 2.85% (95%CI: 2.68%-3.02%) and that for women was 1.25% (95%CI: 1.04%-1.45%). From 1992 to 2016, the local drift values of both men and women were greater than 0 (all P<0.05). In terms of age effect, after adjusting for cohort effect and period effect, the risk of death of kidney cancer in men and women increased exponentially with age from the age of 15. From 15 to 19 years old to 75 to 79 years old, the RR of kidney cancer death was 1.85 in male and 1.59 in female. The cohort and period effects of the two genders were statistically significant (P<0.05), the AAPC for the whole and all age groups were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Conclusion: The mortality rate of kidney cancer increased greatly, and more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of kidney cancer.