Age-period-cohort analysis of stroke mortality attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China and Japan

Abstract

Stroke is a principal cause of mortality in China and Japan. High systolic blood pressure (SBP) was considered a chief risk factor for stroke mortality. Herein, we evaluated temporal trends of high SBP-attributable stroke mortality in China and Japan between 1990 and 2017. Data on stroke mortality were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017). Using the age-period-cohort method, we computed overall net drifts, local drifts, longitudinal age curves, and cohort/period rate ratios (RRs) for high SBP-attributable stroke mortality. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) displayed decreasing trends for high SBP-attributable stroke mortality. The annual net drift values were − 1.4% and − 3.5% in Chinese men and women versus − 3.1% and − 4.9% in Japanese men and women. The local drift values in both countries were < 0 among all age groups but were lower in women than in men. The longitudinal age curves showed a greater high SBP-attributable stroke mortality in men than in women across all age groups. Similar decreasing patterns were shown in the period and cohort RRs in both sexes with women having a quicker decline than men. In China and Japan, the ASMRs, as well as the period and cohort RRs of high SBP-attributable stroke mortality, decreased between 1990 and 2017 in both sexes and across all age groups. Yet, the prevalence of high SBP remained worrisome in both countries. Thus, SBP control should be encouraged to prevent stroke mortality.