Abstract
BackgroundRussian suicide mortality rates changed rapidly over the second half of the twentieth century. This study attempts to differentiate between underlying period and cohort effects in relation to the changes in suicide mortality in Russia between 1956 and 2005.MethodsSex- and age-specific suicide mortality data were analyzed using an age-period-cohort (APC) approach. Descriptive analyses and APC modeling with log-linear Poisson regression were performed.ResultsStrong period effects were observed for the years during and after Gorbachev’s political reforms (including the anti-alcohol campaign) and for those following the break-up of the Soviet Union. After mutual adjustment, the cohort- and period-specific relative risk estimates for suicide revealed differing underlying processes. While the estimated period effects had an overall positive trend, cohort-specific developments indicated a positive trend for the male cohorts born between 1891 and 1931 and for the female cohorts born between 1891 and 1911, but a negative trend for subsequent cohorts.ConclusionsOur results indicate that the specific life experiences of cohorts may be important for variations in suicide mortality across time, in addition to more immediate effects of changes in the social environment.
Highlights
Russian suicide mortality rates changed rapidly over the second half of the twentieth century
There was a decrease in suicide mortality in most male age groups in the five-year period during and after Gorbachev’s political reforms (1986 − 1990) and an increase in the five-year period following the break-up of the Soviet Union (1991 − 1995)
There was a greater increase in suicide rates for every older age group in the period between 1956 − 1985 followed by a greater decrease in suicide for every older age group, and even an increase among the youngest age groups (15 − 34), in the period between 1996 − 2005
Summary
Russian suicide mortality rates changed rapidly over the second half of the twentieth century. A slow increase from 1986 was followed by a rapid 60% increase between 1991 and 1994 [2] These changes in suicide mortality have been associated with Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms (perestroika, glasnost) during the 1980s [3, 4] – the anti-alcohol campaign in particular [5, 6] – and with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and its immediate consequences, such as societal anomie, i.e. a state of normlessness, [7,8,9], steep and prolonged declines in GDP [10], increased levels of stress [7, 11], as well as increased alcohol consumption [6]. Since 1995, the suicide rate has generally been decreasing, the average yearly decrease being 2.8% [12]
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