Abstract
BackgroundUnderstanding dentists’ capacity to supply dental services over time is a key element in the process of planning for the future. The aim was to identify time trends and estimate age, period and cohort effects in patients’ visits supplied per dentist per year.MethodsMailed questionnaires were collected from a random sample of Australian private general practice dentists. The response rates were 73%, 75%, 74%, 71%, 76% and 67% in 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2009, respectively. The time trends in the mean number of patient visits supplied per dentist per year (PPY) was described by using a standard cohort table and age-period-cohort analyses applying a nested general linear regression models approach.ResultsThe mean number of PPY decreased across most age groups of dentists over the time of study. The age-period model showed that younger dentists (20–29 years) and older dentists (65–74 and 80–84 years) had lower PPY than middle-aged dentists, and the age-cohort model showed higher PPY among earlier cohorts, and lower PPY among more recent cohorts.ConclusionThe study found a period effect of declining PPY over the observation period. More recent cohorts of dentists provide lower numbers of PPY than earlier cohorts at similar ages, but the provision of PPY among these younger cohorts appeared to be stable as they moved into middle age.
Highlights
Understanding dentists’ capacity to supply dental services over time is a key element in the process of planning for the future
More recent cohorts of dentists provide lower numbers of per dentist per year (PPY) than earlier cohorts at similar ages, but the provision of PPY among these younger cohorts appeared to be stable as they moved into middle age
The present study investigated time trends and estimated age, period and cohort effects in patient visits supplied per dentist per year
Summary
Understanding dentists’ capacity to supply dental services over time is a key element in the process of planning for the future. The aim was to identify time trends and estimate age, period and cohort effects in patients’ visits supplied per dentist per year. The capacity of practising dentists to supply dental services has been linked with population demographics and oral health status, and associated with labour force structure and service-mix provided. Period and cohort effects are important considerations when explaining trends in patient visits supplied by practising dentists [5]. Age effects are associated with the passage of time, so change in the number of patient visits by practising dentists related to age over time may help to explain the capacity to provide dental service, for instance, if dentists became less productive as they aged
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