Abstract
BackgroundAge of onset is an important outcome to characterize a population with a chronic disease. With respect to social, cognitive, and physical aspects for patients and families, dementia is especially burdensome. In Germany, like in many other countries, it is highly prevalent in the older population and imposes enormous efforts for caregivers and society.MethodsWe develop an incidence-prevalence-mortality model to derive the mean and variance of the age of onset in chronic diseases. Age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of dementia is taken from published values based on health insurance data from 2002. Data about the age distribution in Germany in 2002 comes from the Federal Statistical Office.ResultsMean age of onset of a chronic disease depends on a) the age-specific incidence of the disease, b) the prevalence of the disease, and c) the age distribution of the population. The resulting age of onset of dementia in Germany in 2002 is 78.8 ± 8.1 years (mean ± standard deviation) for men and 81.9 ± 7.6 years for women.ConclusionsAlthough incidence and prevalence of dementia in men are not greater than in women, men contract dementia approximately three years earlier than women. The reason lies in the different age distributions of the male and the female population in Germany.
Highlights
Worldwide, dementia is a major public health problem today and in the future
The framework of the IPM model allows the calculation of the mean age of onset of a chronic disease
In the present work, an IPM model has been used to study the age of onset of dementia
Summary
The current number of cases is estimated to be 35.6 million, about one-fifth of those living in Western Europe [1]. In Germany, the country with most inhabitants in Europe, the number of cases will likely double by 2050 [1]. Patients with dementia encounter a variety of limitations including social, cognitive, psychological, and physical aspects with substantial loss of quality of life for the patients themselves and for caregivers and families [2]. Associated annual costs are estimated at 604 billion US dollars worldwide and will increase even more quickly than the prevalence [1]. Cognitive, and physical aspects for patients and families, dementia is especially burdensome. In Germany, like in many other countries, it is highly prevalent in the older population and imposes enormous efforts for caregivers and society
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