Abstract
We study the criminal histories of 14,608 males and females in a full Stockholm birth cohort born in 1953 to age 64. Using an update of The Stockholm Birth Cohort Study data, we explore the amount of crimes recorded in the cohort before and after the advent of adulthood. We break down the age/crime curve into separate parameters, including onset, duration, and termination. Throughout, we utilize the large number of females (49%; n = 7 161) in the cohort, and compare long-term patterns of male and female criminal careers. Next, we focus on adulthood, and explore the existence and parameters of the adult-onset offender and its contribution to the overall volume of crime in the cohort. While crime peaks in adolescence, the main bulk of crimes in the cohort occurred after the dawning of adulthood. Nearly half of all male, and more than two-thirds of all female, crimes in the cohort occurred after age 25. In the case of violence, the majority of offences — around two-thirds for both genders — took place in adulthood. Around 23% of all males and 38% of all females with a criminal record in the cohort were first recorded for a criminal offence in adulthood. While a majority were convicted only once, a proportion of adult-onset offenders had a considerable risk of recidivism and repeated recidivism. These results suggest that quite a substantial proportion of the population initiate crime in adulthood, and that these offenders account for a nonnegligible proportion of adult crime.
Highlights
Longitudinal criminological research rose to fame during the 1980s and 1990s following a set of influential criminal career studies (e.g., Blumstein et al, 1986; Farrington, 1986; Moffitt, 1993; Sampson & Laub, 1993)
The purpose of this study was to, descriptively and exploratory, trace the criminal histories of 14,608 males and females in a full Stockholm birth cohort born in 1953 to age 64, covering as much of the full arc of life as data allowed. Since studies with such long follow-up periods are rare within developmental and life-course criminology (e.g., Farrington, 2019; LeBlanc, 2020; Laub & Sampson, 2003), our study adds to the existing literature on long-term criminal careers in general, and on adult-onset offending and male and female criminal careers in particular
This estimate lies very close to other longitudinal studies of crime with similar follow-up periods (e.g., Farrington et al, 2021), and suggests that quite a substantial proportion of the general population of males may be expected to become convicted for a crime over their lives
Summary
Longitudinal criminological research rose to fame during the 1980s and 1990s following a set of influential criminal career studies (e.g., Blumstein et al, 1986; Farrington, 1986; Moffitt, 1993; Sampson & Laub, 1993). Sivertsson developmental and life-course studies have deepened our knowledge of the complex relationship between age and crime (for recent overviews, Britt, 2019; Le Blanc, 2020). It is well known that the aggregate age/crime curve conceals substantial complexity at the individual level, and may be broken down into multiple individual trajectories where some are characterized by an early onset and a subsequent frequent trajectory, while most offenders have more of a short burst of crime that begins and ends in adolescence (see Jolliffe et al, 2017; Piquero, 2008). Still others have a relatively stretched out but low-frequent trajectory, and some studies have suggested the existence of a group which is defined by a relatively late onset of crime, often termed adult-onset offenders (e.g., Andersson et al, 2012)
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