Age-dependent effects of moderate differences in environmental predictability forecasted by climate change, experimental evidence from a short-lived lizard (Zootoca vivipara)

G Masó,P S Fitze,J Kaufmann,H Clavero

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-51955-7

Abstract

Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions. Solid evidence for effects of environmental predictability are lacking and thus, the consequences of the currently observed and forecasted climate-change induced reduction of precipitation predictability are largely unknown. Here we experimentally tested whether and how changes in the predictability of precipitation affect growth, reproduction, and survival of common lizard Zootoca vivipara. Precipitation predictability affected all three age classes. While adults were able to compensate the treatment effects, yearlings and juvenile females were not able to compensate negative effects of less predictable precipitation on growth and body condition, respectively. Differences among the age-classes’ response reflect differences (among age-classes) in the sensitivity to environmental predictability. Moreover, effects of environmental predictability depended on mean environmental conditions. This indicates that integrating differences in environmental sensitivity, and changes in averages and the predictability of climatic variables will be key to understand whether species are able to cope with the current climatic change.

Highlights

Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions
While it is widely accepted that changes in average environmental conditions affect species’ and individual responses[3], less evidence exists for effects of environmental predictability and it is generally thought that less predictable environments negatively affect life history traits[5,6,7] and thereby population dynamics[8]
While a recent review suggests that the effect of environmental variance may depend on mean environmental conditions[10], no evidence exists that the effects of environmental predictability depends on mean environmental conditions

Summary

Introduction

Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions. It is well established that changes in environmental conditions (e.g. climatic conditions) can affect individual performance (e.g. survival, growth rate, and reproduction), life-history strategies and population dynamics[1]. While it is widely accepted that changes in average environmental conditions affect species’ and individual responses[3], less evidence exists for effects of environmental predictability (i.e., environmental fluctuations through time4) and it is generally thought that less predictable environments negatively affect life history traits[5,6,7] and thereby population dynamics[8]. Robust evidence from experimental work is especially important, since most climate change scenarios predict a long-term increase of rainfall variability, as well as an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events[18]. Experimental evidence for the importance of precipitation predictability is scarce and limited to studies generating extreme events[17]

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Results

Conclusion