Age and clutch size variation in Dusky Flycatcher nest survival

Abstract

Examination of spatial and temporal factors that influence nest survival can provide insight into habitat selection, reproductive decisions (e.g., clutch size), population dynamics, and conservation requirements for species. We used nest survival data for the Dusky Flycatcher Empidonax oberholseri to examine several factors that may influence nesting success. Our prediction was that the number of nest initiations would be positively associated with period nest survival. We used a model selection framework and found that nesting success was a function of clutch size and a cubic effect of age. Clutches with one, two, three, and four eggs had period survival rates of 0, 0.05, 0.33, and 0.49, respectively. Daily survival rates decreased from the onset of egg-laying and increased during the later stages of incubation before remaining relatively constant through the later portions of the nestling stage. Model-selection criterion provided support for a date effect on daily survival (i.e., daily nest survival declined across the nesting season) although the 95% confidence interval for the estimate included zero. We found that the majority of nest initiations occurred early in the nest season and declined across the season as period nest survival declined. Our prediction concerning nest survival was partially supported. In addition, we found substantial positive associations between clutch size and nest survival. While low daily survival rates for clutches with one or two eggs suggested that individuals may have reduced reproductive effort in response to nest predation risk, we did not find strong evidence that individuals reduced their clutch sizes in subsequent nest attempts. Alternative predictions, including the preferential settlement of higher quality individuals (e.g., those with the ability to lay full clutches to replace depredated nests) into high-quality habitat and differences in behavior patterns (e.g., number of visits to provision nestlings), may provide more consistent explanations for these patterns.