Afterword: The Great Convergence and Possible Increase in Global Instability, or the World Without an Absolute Leader

Abstract

The final chapter of the present monograph does not only summarize the research but also offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades on the basis of the proposed theory (which, incidentally, accounts for the concluding chapter’s title). One of the important lessons that one has learnt is that, on the one hand, in the foreseeable future, we will observe the processes of economic and socio-cultural convergence between developing and developed countries, and, consequently, the reduction of poverty and illiteracy in many developing countries. However, on the other hand, this process will not go smoothly and without any setbacks; what is more, it will require a deep reconfiguration of the World System. This may mean a possible increase in instability and intensity of crises in the world in the forthcoming decades. Instability will be expressed globally due to increased confrontation and the search for a new balance of power and new alliances; but it will also be manifested at regional and national levels, due to the fact that the increased level of technology, culture and expectations may enter into conflict with the existing shortcomings of social and state systems, inequality and injustice. The problem of instability in the foreseeable future is closely linked with the need to search for the principles of the new world order, as the change in the balance of economic forces in connection with the Great Convergence and increasing globalization will inevitably pose such a problem. However, it is important to note that future instability and clash of forces in the global field is likely to become noticeably dissimilar to the original confrontation between the First and Third World, between the former imperial centers and their former colonies. Neither will it be the clash of civilizations in Huntington’s sense (although the ethnic and civilizational component will always be present in global tensions). It is the tension between the old and new players on the “global chessboard”, which in the end (we hope) will not be a field of perpetual confrontation of geopolitical players, but, a field for the maintenance of a new field and somewhat more equitable world order. One of the novel ideas developed in the concluding chapter of this book is that the passing of the USA’s hegemony will not lead to the emergence of a new global hegemon. The authors believe that in a direct connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cyclic pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to a World System reconfiguration and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System to continue its further development without a hegemon. They also suggest that the world middle class (that is growing primarily due to the Great Convergence) may create new possibilities for the political globalization and a fairer world order.