Aftershock Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Major Earthquakes in Western Zagros in Iran and Verification of Two Applied Methods

Abstract

ABSTRACT Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) is essentially useful for various earthquake engineering problems. In this paper, a series of aftershock seismic hazard analyses were conducted in western Zagros region in Iran using different approaches. The results were obtained in terms of exceedance probabilities of peak ground accelerations within different time intervals following the mainshock. The results were generally compatible with the recorded data; however, the accuracy depended on the causative fault geometry and spatial distribution of aftershocks. The accuracy decreased in shorter time intervals after the mainshock and also in longer time spans especially when strong aftershocks occurred.