After insularity: Hegemony and the future world order

Abstract

Geostrategic insularity—historically based on water as a medium of long-distance commerce and a barrier to land armies—helped hegemonic countries to emerge from global wars with worldwide predominance in military capability and economic strength (in production, trade, finance). The role of insularity in hegemony is discussed and two pre-modern prototypes (Athens and Venice) and five modern cases of insularity (Portugal, the Netherlands, 18th and 19th century Britain, and the USA) are examined. The undermining of insularity by air power and missiles is then considered, and four scenarios are explored for future world order in a post-insular era: (1) US hegemonic revival; (2) rapid hegemonic decline leading to anarchy or hegemonic war; (3) peaceful transition to Japanese hegemony; and (4) slow hegemonic decline with great power cooperation under lingering US leadership. Neither resurgent hegemony nor rapid decline (toward anarchy, war, or hegemonic transfer) appears likely. Rather, shared responsibility for world order under continuing US leadership is foreseen.